The TSIA T&S 50 Q4 Index
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Overview
Challenges
Summary
Key takeaways
The cost of AI shows up in cash flow, not in margin.
Oracle carried a +34.8% GAAP operating margin and negative $5.0B of free cash flow in the same quarter, funding $28.5B of AI-datacenter capex. Microsoft's FY2027 capex guidance sits near $175B, and management has already guided operating margin down for the year ahead. If your AI business case is approved on operating margin alone, you won't see the cost until it's already on your balance sheet.
Growth is real, but it isn't paid for evenly.
Median revenue growth across the index is 10.0%, ranging from +58.0% at Dell Technologies to −21.0% at NCR Voyix. Cohort medians diverge sharply: software grows at 12.8% on a 73.2% gross margin, while services grows at 6.0% on a 34.6% gross margin. Benchmarking a services P&L against the index median, rather than the services cohort, sets a target no delivery organization can hit.
Six IT-services majors took the AI cost in margin. One took it as revenue.
TCS, Wipro, Capgemini, Infosys, Accenture, and HCL Technologies all disclosed margin compression this quarter tied to wage cycles, AI investment, or underutilization. Genpact went the other direction: its agentic-AI line grew 24.1% year over year and now makes up 27% of its revenue mix. The difference is packaging and pricing, not how much AI each company actually built.
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