The TSIA AI-20 Q4 Index
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Overview
Challenges
Summary
Key takeaways
The AI premium is being paid out of gross margin, not by customers.
Median GAAP gross margin across the Comparable 15 has eroded 347 basis points over three years, to 67.7%. Every material decline in the index traces to a specific choice — an acquisition, a licence-to-SaaS transition, or a fixed delivery base that doesn't flex with usage — and in each case, the company chose to own more of the delivery cost than it used to.
Growth is real. Profit is two companies wide.
Median year-over-year revenue growth is 16.9%, ranging from +92.8% to −52.5% across the cohort. But only Palantir and UiPath report a GAAP operating profit this quarter. The Rule of 40 now needs two answers — growth plus operating margin, and growth plus cash margin — because they tell different stories, and the median on operating margin is still negative.
Six headlines flatter the reality behind them.
Net income figures across the index are frequently driven by non-operating items — unrealized securities gains, interest income, mark-to-market adjustments on an earnout — sitting above or below an operating loss. Before you benchmark your own business against a competitor's press release, trace the mechanism behind their number.
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